Everywhere you turn, there is uncertainty ready to ruin your day.
Now more than ever, we need a sense of clarity. But the future is more predictable than you think.
So, here are my ten outcomes that seem likely in 2023.
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It’s hard to believe, but 2022 is over.
Every year, I come up with ten financial and macroeconomic predictions ranging from evident to outright absurd.
I certainly don’t have a crystal ball, but as an avid student of financial history and lifelong investor, I believe some events have higher chances of happening than others.
So without any further ado, here are my ten predictions for 2023.
1. Cannibals will roam the earth
In my first prediction, I honor Nostradamus, a French astrologer who died in 1566. Nostradamus is one of the greatest prophets of all time, and approximately 70% of his predictions came true.
Sounding like something from a dystopian movie, Nostradamus predicted that “so high will the bushel of wheat rise, that man will be eating his fellow man.” The famous prophet indirectly predicted widespread food shortages and high inflation.
Most of the remaining Nostradamus’ projections for 2023 were pretty “dark,” varying from an appointment of a new Pope and the burning of the royal palace to World War III.
2. Prepare for frustrating stagflation
The dim view of Nostradamus’ projections will also reflect in the world economy.
The inflation and unemployment will stay high, which likely means we’ll see a recession in 2023. High inflation combined with negative growth is the very definition of stagflation.
3. Interest rates will rise above 6%
With high inflation, the Fed will be forced to raise rates above the 5.1% level indicated at the December FOMC meeting. It will most likely result in rates climbing above 6%.
4. U.S. Dollar will stagnate
While the Fed will keep raising rates, rates in Europe and Japan will likely run higher too. That will leave the dollar index in stagnation, resulting in the dollar trading between 90 and 110.
5. Value stocks will outperform growth stocks
This prediction is quite apparent. If we have a full-blown recession in 2023, long-duration assets will struggle next year. In other words, value stocks will outperform growth stocks again in 2023.
6. Bitcoin will rebound from the lows
2023 will be the year when the money printer goes to work again. Renewed money printing means higher inflation, which is good news for bitcoin. Most large financial institutions have already entered the bitcoin space and are prepared to hedge themself and their clients in anticipation of more dollar debasement. As a result, bitcoin will rebound from the current lows in 2023.
7. S&P 500 will have a positive year
The S&P 500 might continue struggling at the beginning of 2023, but with the Fed likely to pivot in the year’s second half, the S&P 500 will gain traction. The index will likely see a peak fear capitulation in Q2 only to rebound in the second half and finish the year in positive territory.
8. Oil price will reach $150 a barrel
Dmitry Medvedev, former president of the largest oil exporter, projected that “Oil price will rise to $150 a barrel.” The forecast would almost double the current WTI crude price. Considering the speed at which the fiat currencies are debased, this prediction makes great sense in 2023.
9. Another country will launch CBDC
Central bank digital currencies (CBDC) were a mere conspiracy theory three years ago after China launched its CBDC, and India launched its own CBDC this year. Every major central bank has admitted they are developing CBDC. Next year another major country will announce the launch of CBDC.
10. A devastating solar storm will hit the Earth
I began my ten predictions with Nostradamus and will end it with a more contemporary prophet, Baba Vanga. Many devotees of this famous Bulgarian mystic believed she’d predicted everything from 9/11 to the rise of Donald Trump. One of her most alarming predictions for 2023 concerns a solar storm, which could have catastrophic consequences. The term ‘solar storm’ refers to solar flares and vast plasma eruptions capable of reaching the Earth. Baba Vanga predicted that such a storm could potentially fry power grids and cause widespread blackouts and chaos in the financial markets.
Although some of these predictions might sound distressing, it always helps to be equipped for what is coming. Or, in Malcolm X’s words, “The future belongs to those who prepare for it today.”
And remember, nothing ever lasts, no matter how gloomy it seems.
Here’s to a great 2023!