The correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and stock markets has been unusually high since mid-March, meaning the two asset classes have presented near-identical directional movement. This data might explain why the 10% rally above $21,000 is being dismissed by most traders, especially considering S&P 500 futures gained 4% in two days. However, Bitcoin trading activity and the derivatives market strongly support the recent gains.
Curiously, the current Bitcoin rally happened a day after the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released a report investigating the energy usage associated with digital assets. The study recommended enforcing energy reliability and efficiency standards. It also suggested federal agencies provide technical assistance and initiate a collaborative process with the industry.
Notice how the peaks and valleys on both charts tend to coincide, but the correlation changes as investors’ perceptions and risk assessments vary over time. For example, between May 2021 and July 2021, the correlation was inverted most of the period. Overall, the stock market posted steady gains while the crypto markets collapsed.
More importantly, the chart above shows a huge gap being opened between Bitcoin and the stock market as stocks rallied from mid-July to mid-August. A comparison using the same scale would be better, but that does not work due to the difference in volatility. Still, it is reasonable to conclude that historically these gaps tend to close.