The US inflation and jobs data majority impact the crypto market, especially Bitcoin price. The US Federal Reserve looks to raise interest rates in July after it held interest rates unchanged last month as the US labor market remains tight. However, the CPI and the Core PCE inflation, the US Fed’s preferred gauge to measure inflation continue to fall.
The annual CPI inflation for June fell to 3%, marking the 12th consecutive month of falls. It is the lowest since March 2021. Also, core CPI inflation decreased to 4.8% from 5.3% in May. However, the monthly CPI for June rises 0.2% against 0.1% last month.
Wall Street analysts also estimated a massive fall in CPI inflation. Bloomberg, Citi, HSBC, UBS, and Nomura expect CPI at 3%, while Goldman Sachs, BMO, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, TD Securities, and CIBC estimated inflation to fall to 3.1%. Meanwhile, JPMorgan, RBC, and Visa forecasted annual CPI at 3.2%.
Experts said the headline inflation falling to 3-3.2% will bring further upside move in the stocks and crypto markets. JPMorgan’s analysts said inflation is likely to fall below the consensus estimates and compel the Fed to shift to a dovish outlook.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 90% probability of a 25 bps hike to be announced during the FOMC meeting on July 26. However, the US dollar index (DXY) fell 2-month low to 102 and expect to continue falling below 101. It will support further upside move in Bitcoin price above $31,000.
