“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful,” legendary investor Warren Buffett once said.
Perhaps now is the time to be greedy in the crypto market as the battered bitcoin (BTC) could soon find relief and rally to $63,000 by March 2024, when the cryptocurrency is likely to undergo mining reward halving – a programmed code aimed at reducing the pace of supply expansion by 50% every four years.
That’s the latest forecast from Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at crypto services provider Matrixport, which has $10 billion in assets under management.
The positive prediction is based on the assumption that bitcoin will repeat the bullish price action seen in the lead-up to the July 2016 and April 2020 halvings. On both occasions bitcoin ran into bullish winds 15 months ahead of the halving and, in the halving month, traded 39% higher from where it changed hands two years ago.
So if history is a guide, bitcoin could see a change of fortunes starting next month and rise to $63,160 by March 2024 to trade 39% higher than the March 2022 price of $45,538.
“Prices started to rally 15 months before the next halving (November 2022) and they tend to finish 39% from where they traded 24 months prior. This would imply that bitcoin trades around $63,160 (March 2022 at $45,538*(1+39%) = $63,160) by March 2024,” Thielen wrote in the latest edition of Matrix on Target note.