Over the past two months, Bitcoin (BTC) has respected a slightly ascending trend, bouncing multiple times from its support.
Even though that might sound positive, Bitcoin’s performance year-to-date remains a lackluster negative 14%. On the other hand, the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) gained 2% in the same period.
The broader commodity index benefited from price increases in crude oil, natural gas, gold, corn, and lean hogs. Worsening macroeconomic conditions pressured the supply curve, which, in turn, shifted the equilibrium price toward a higher level.
Moreover, the United States approved a $1.5 trillion spending bill on March 15 that funds the government through September. President Joe Biden’s signing of the legislation averts a government shutdown but further pressures the U.S. national debt, now at over $30.3 trillion.
Still, cryptocurrency traders are increasingly concerned about the U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes expected throughout 2022 to contain inflationary pressure.
Investors took profits on riskier assets, causing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to reach its highest level in 21 months at 99.2 on March 11. The index measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of top foreign currencies.
Bearish bets are mostly below $40,000
Bitcoin’s recovery above $40,000 on March 26 took bears by surprise as only 7% of the bearish option bets for March 18 have been placed above such a price level.
Bulls might have been fooled by the recent $45,000 resistance test on March 1 as their bets for March 18’s $760 million options expiry go all the way to $65,000.
